Updated 11:38 PM EST, Sun, Nov 29, 2020

El Niño Weather Pattern Expected in Peru

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It is expected that the El Niño weather pattern is going to become "moderate" in the coming months, not "strong" as originally predicted.

According to Reuters, the likelihood of the current El Niño shaping up to be as disastrous as it was in 1997 and 1998 is now "very low," said the lead El Niño investigator at Peru's Geophysical Institute, Ken Takashi. He shared, "During the anomaly of 1997, coastal temperatures in Peru were almost double what they are now, so it would be very difficult to reach those levels."

The Peruvian bureau tasked with the El Niño forecasting, Enfen, previously said that the forecast of a 50 percent likelihood of a "strong" phenomenon was expected in the summer, which is to span from December to March in the Southern Hemisphere. However, Enfen now sees only a 35 percent chance of the El Niño becoming strong, with a 50 percent chance of becoming moderate instead. The World Meteorological Organization, however, said last month that the current state of the El Niño is already "strong and mature," and is considered to be the biggest in over 15 years.

Even though the El Niño weather pattern is associated with extreme droughts, Takashi noted that it can still bring heavy rains, especially to the country's northern coast.

On the other side of the ocean, Australia is also said to see El Niño showing signs of easing.

While the continuing presence of El Niño is making news in places like Peru and Australia and other countries on the Pacific coast, it is also affecting places further north. In the USA for instance, it has been reported that ski areas are getting warmer, and a southern bird has even been spotted in New York City. Meanwhile, the winter months are here, but Buffalo, New York is yet to see snow.

El Niño, which is driven by the warm surface water in the Pacific Ocean, could keep Arctic air out of much of the USA, and well into winter. El Niño has a wide-range effect on the weather in the US and around the world, and can have widespread effects, not only on agriculture and fisheries, but on the water and health in general, as well.

USA Today noted that Canada, on the other hand is not as affected by El Niño compared to the USA, although the Polar Vortex is still strong that far north. Accuweather meteorologist, Paul Pastelok, said, "El Niño is contributing to a strong belt of westerly winds across Canada that will help keep the Polar Vortex strong but locked up near the Arctic Circle."

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